Photo : Sputnik / Sergey Guneev
22 November 2023, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #680
EM in Brief
By Rishika Yadav
FRANCE
EU urges fiscal adjustment after spending warnings
On 21 November, POLITICO reported on European Commission request to France, Belgium, Finland, and Croatia to align their 2024 spending plans with EU debt and deficit regulations. This move comes as the four-year suspension of these rules concludes in January. Valdis Dombrovskis, EU’s Commission Vice President, cited concerns over rising public expenditure and inadequate cuts in energy support in France’s budget proposal. Ignoring warnings could trigger an “Excess Deficit Procedure,” pressuring governments to curb spending. Amidst economic fragility and global tensions, France’s breach of the three per cent GDP deficit limit and expected debt rise to 110 per cent in 2024 could prompt EU intervention, despite claims of minimal adjustment needed. (Bjarke Smith-Meyer, Gregorio Sorgi and Giorgio Leali, “EU gives France an ‘F’ grade on spending plans,” POLITICO, 21 November 2023)
GERMANY
Deal over gas export and renewable investment with Nigeria
On 21 November, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Nigeria's President, announced a bilateral agreement between Nigeria and Germany. According to the deal, Nigeria is set to supply 850,000 tons of liquified natural gas (LNG) annually, eventually reaching 1.2 million tons. Johannes Schuetze, head of Germany’s gas importer, lauded the deal diversifying Germany’s gas sources. This historic pact, signed at the G20 Compact with Africa conference, included Germany’s USD 500 million investment in Nigeria’s renewable energy projects, aiming to integrate more people into the formal economy. Discussions are underway for Siemens’ involvement in Nigeria’s electricity infrastructure overhaul and railway expansion, initiatives spearheaded by Tinubu to attract foreign investment. (“Nigeria and Germany agree deal on gas and renewables,” Deutsche Welle, 21 November 2023)
THE NETHERLANDS
Elections on high-stakes as polls begin
On 22 November, POLITICO reported on the opening for the Dutch election where four leaders, Geert Wilders, Frans Timmermans, Pieter Omtzigt, and Dilan Yeşilgöz compete against each other. Polls show Wilders’ far-right party is gaining momentum, potentially rivalling the ruling People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD). However, 63 per cent of voters remained undecided on 21 November, intensifying the unpredictable outcome. Wilders’ anti-Islam stance persists, though he shifted focus to healthcare and security. Yeşilgöz opened to working with Wilders, while Omtzigt refuses collaboration due to anti-Islam policies. Timmermans aims to rally progressive voters against the far right, while the potential of a Wilders-led party, the Party for Freedom (PVV), worries the Green-Left alliance supporters. Their alliances may determine the next government. (Eline Schaart, “Dutch election is wide open as voting begins,” POLITICO, 22 November 2023)
RUSSIA
Putin accuses US at BRICS summit
On 21 November, BRICS leaders convened an urgent virtual summit addressing the Middle East turmoil, where President Vladimir Putin accused the US of monopolizing peace efforts. Amid US-Israel opposition to a Gaza ceasefire, Putin highlighted Washington’s hindrance of international mediators like Russia, the UN, and the EU. The BRICS meeting indicated a shift, signifying the group’s interest in resolving global political issues beyond economic matters, observed Dr. Hesham Alghannam, a Saudi Arabia’s political scientist. Despite Saudi-led efforts backed by Russia and China for a Gaza ceasefire, they faced US opposition. Arab-Muslim countries lauded Putin’s stance, aligning with Arab objectives. The Gaza crisis has affected the US image negatively, highlighting growing divisions in Washington over the conflict. The US’s differing stance from Muslim-Arab visions has tainted its image amidst worsening Gaza conditions. The contention over a Gaza ceasefire persists, with the US at odds with the Muslim-Arab world’s advocacy. (Ekateria Blinova, “Putin's Address at BRICS Summit on Gaza Aligned With Arab-Muslim Vision – Mideast Experts,” SPUTNIK, 21 November 2023)
THE UK
Rishi Sunak faces political challenges ahead of fiscal statement
On 22 November, POLITICO reported on waning of Rishi Sunak, UK’s Prime Minister political fortunes as major events meant to boost his image fell short. The high stakes for the Autumn Statement suggest the government is likely to prioritize tax cuts. With increased pressure and Tory (Conservative Party) dissent, Sunak aims to unveil tax reductions, addressing the UK’s high tax-GDP ratio post-pandemic. Despite discontent, tax cuts are expected to be announced as part of a pre-election strategy. However, the move may alleviate tensions but would not fully address the underlying concerns in the party. (Esther Webber, “Rishi Sunak hits the tax cut button as his luck runs out,” POLITICO, 22 November 2023)